A state of emergency, streets paralyzed with protesters, the fatal
shooting of a leading pro-government activist and an election campaign
teetering on chaos may not sound like the script from a rising Southeast
Asian economic powerhouse.
But for Thailand -- which
manages to combine economic success and political mayhem in equal
measure -- this weekend's elections are just another page in an
eight-year struggle between supporters and opponents of Thaksin
Shinawatra.
The former prime minister
may have been out of Thailand since 2008, but his populist policies --
which included subsidized healthcare and microcredit schemes targeted at
a rural and impoverished electorate -- have made him the driving force
behind governments that have won every election since 2001.
Even with the current elections, few are predicting that the opposition will settle for the result.
Ten people have already
been killed since the demonstrations began last November. The results of
the election, some analysts say, could be annulled if the opposition
mounts a successful legal challenge in the country's increasingly
politicized courts.
Coup still possible
For Duncan McCargo,
professor of Southeast Asian politics at the University of Leeds, a
military coup is still not out of the question.
"The protestors appear to
have no clear political agenda other than a desire to 'return' Thailand
to an imagined pre-Thaksin era in which the ruling network and its
supporters can still call the shots, and provincial voters can be
marginalized," he told CNN.
"In the short term, they are trying to provoke a military coup of some kind."
At the heart of the
protesters concerns is the fear that Thaksin, from his self-imposed
exile in Dubai, is still exercising influence through his younger sister
Yingluck Shinawatra, the current prime minister.
"There's no doubt that
Thaksin has remained an influential figure, working through and behind
the Yingluck government," McCargo said. "But Yingluck hasn't been
Thaksin's 'clone,' as he originally hoped, and there has been ample
evidence that she was often able to set her own agenda and to form her
own political alliances."
Economy at the fault-line
Thailand's successful export-based economy itself is one of the faultlines of the current political discord.
While growth in
Thailand, Southeast Asia's second largest economy after Indonesia, is
slowing, the traditionally impoverished northeast of the country is
booming.
Traditionally the
poorest region of Thailand, Isan, in the northeast of the country,
accounts for a third of Thailand's population. However, it is rapidly
turning from its economic staple of subsistence farming to an economy
driven by trade and services.
Economic growth in the
region hit 40% from 2007 to 2011, compared with 23% for the rest of
Thailand over that period and just 17% for greater Bangkok, according to
government figures.
Isan, which once
exported people to Bangkok and the rest of the world as cheap migrant
labor, is seeing its workers return and is demanding greater political
representation.
Prime Minister Yingluck
Shinawatra has brought in a raft of measures that ensure Thaksin's
populist policies continue to underpin the boom in the red shirt
heartland.
Chief among them is a
2.2 trillion baht ($71 billion) infrastructure program aimed at the
northeast and a nationwide minimum wage of 300 baht ($10) a day. In some
parts of Isan, this boosted household incomes by more than 35%.
A rice subsidy, which
guarantees farmers 40% above market price for their crops, has led to a
conservative estimate of losses in the region of 136 billion baht ($4.3
billion). It has been widely criticized in Thailand and even recently
drew fire from the International Monetary Fund, which urged the country
to drop the $21 billion scheme.
Changing demographic
As the boom fuels a
growing middle class, Bangkok's elite now realizes that it ignores the
northeast -- which holds a third of the electorate -- at its peril.
"In the past, Thailand
was run by a relatively small Bangkok-based elite which I term 'network
monarchy,' centering on the palace, the military, the bureaucracy and
major business groups," McCargo said.
"While electoral
politics have been the norm for more than 30 years, elected governments
needed the blessing of this network in order to remain in office.
Without this endorsement, governments quickly collapsed -- or were
removed by military coups."
The blank generation
Meanwhile, for
Thailand's growing base of unaligned voters, the latest political drama
is just one more scene in an all-too familiar saga.
"I think I will post a
blank ballot," one disgruntled voter from Korat in the northeast who did
not want to be named, told CNN. "Once there were many parties but
nowadays there's just two: Thaksin/Yingluck or Abhisit.
"To me both of them are
troublesome -- they both have problems with corruption and they are both
pushing their own agendas so hard they're splitting the country in two.
"Corruption has been
with this country since the beginning of time, but when I was young
there were some ex-prime ministers who really did a good job for their
countries, even if they did line their pockets from the national budget
too."
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